Prices up this morning as Gazprom did not book extra transportation capacity

European gas prices were mixed on Friday, waiting to see how Russian flows will evolve this week. As a reminder, on 27 October, President Putin had told Gazprom to start pumping gas into European gas storages (in Germany and Austria) once Russia finishes filling its own stocks, which may happen by November 8. Moreover, Asia JKM prices (+7.46%, to €88.734/MWh, on the spot; -1.32%, to €93.284/MWh, for the December 2021 contract) and parity prices with coal for power generation (almost stable) sent mixed signals. In terms of spot flows, Russian supply was slightly up on Friday, to 252 mm cm/day on average, compared to 250 mm cm/day on Thursday. Norwegian flows were down, averaging 338 mm cm/day, compared to 343 mm cm/day on Thursday. 

At the close, NBP ICE December 2021 prices increased by 1.920 p/th day-on-day (+1.01%), to 191.430 p/th. TTF ICE December 2021 prices were up by 65 euro cents (+0.89%) at the close, to €74.027/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by 69 euro cents (-1.41%), closing at €47.796/MWh, and the spread against the coal parity price (€32.145/MWh, -0.27%) dropped slightly.

TTF ICE December 2021 prices closed on Friday below the 5-day High, which continued to set resistance. But this resistance is being broken this morning. Indeed, yesterday, Gazprom did not book extra transportation capacity at daily auctions, eliminating the hopes of an increase in Russian flows from today. The short term (over a 20-day horizon) bearish trend is now challenged. The 20-day average will probably set a resistance to keep this bearish momentum, but it is not excluded that it is broken in turn.