EnergyScan

Prices up on lower Norwegian supply and higher coal prices

European gas prices increased yesterday, supported by lower Norwegian flows (down to 313 mm cm/day on average, compared to 346 mm cm/day on Tuesday, due to planned maintenance at the giant Troll gas field and the Kollsnes processing plant) and higher coal prices (+1.29% for API2 1st nearby prices, +4.40% for Cal 2023 prices). On their side, Russian flows were very slightly up, averaging 207 mm cm/day, compared to 205 mm cm/day on Tuesday. 

At the close, NBP ICE May 2022 prices increased by 4.550 p/th day-on-day (+2.63%), to 177.880 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were up by 46 euro cents (+0.49%), closing at €94.231/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were up by €2.43 (+3.11%), closing at €80.519/MWh. 

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 1.70%, to €79.145/MWh; June 2022 prices dropped by 0.27%, to €79.250/MWh.

The increase in coal prices drove the maximum coal switching level up yesterday, to €102/MWh (compared to €99/MWh on Tuesday), which offered upside potential to TTF ICE May 2022 prices. But the latter failed to break the resistance of the 5-day average, thus maintaining their slight bearish bias. Prices seem to have found an equilibrium around the middle of the range set by the 5-day Low (€84.47/MWh for today) and the 5-day High (€112.00/MWh for today). The improvement in spot fundamentals prevents them from rising towards the latter, and the potential increase in gas-fired power generation (at the expense of coal) prevents them from dropping/remaining towards/at the former.

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