EnergyScan

Prices posted additional increases

In a session with low liquidity as the UK market was closed, European gas prices maintained their uptrend yesterday, still supported by tight fundamentals. The strong rise in Asia JKM prices (+3.07% on the spot, to €52.933/MWh) and in parity prices with coal for power generation (both coal and EUA prices were up) helped once again to support the upward pressure.

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows were stable yesterday, averaging 313 mm cm/day. By contrast, Norwegian flows were lower, averaging 299 mm cm/day (compared to 307 mm cm/day on Friday), due to unplanned maintenance works.

At the close, TTF ICE October 2021 prices were up by €1.67 (+3.47%), to €49.679/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 62 euro cents (+1.89%), closing at €33.305/MWh, slightly above the coal parity price (€32.945/MWh).

Norwegian flows are higher this morning (to 315 mm cm/day). This could help limit the upward pressure today. Moreover, profit taking by financial participants and technical resistances (€49.702/MWh on TTF October 2021 and €33.313/MWh on TTF Cal 2022) could also contribute to exert downward pressure.

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