Prices down as the impact of the halt in Russian deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria started to fade

European gas prices dropped yesterday as the impact of the halt in Russian deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria started to fade. The strong LNG supply in Europe has returned to the fore, driving spot prices significantly down in the markets that benefit from high LNG imports (UK, France, Spain). The drop in coal prices (-4.43% for API2 1st nearby prices, -4.45% for Cal 2023 prices) also exerted downward pressure. On the pipeline supply side, Russian flow were almost stable yesterday, averaging 222 mm cm/day, compared to 223 mm cm/day on Wednesday. On their side, Norwegian flows dropped very slightly, to 300 mm cm/day on average, compared to 303 mm cm/day on Wednesday.

At the close, NBP ICE May 2022 prices dropped by 20.980 p/th day-on-day (-14.02%), to 128.660 p/th. TTF ICE May 2022 prices were down by €7.29 (-6.78%), closing at €100.142/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were down by €2.16 (-2.65%), closing at €79.242/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 14.93%, to €71.124/MWh; June 2022 prices dropped by 0.72%, to €80.703/MWh.

So, for their last day of trading, TTF ICE May 2022 prices closed lower yesterday, around the 5-day average. June 2022 prices are breaking this support this morning, trading at €97.00/MWh at the time of writing. As the maximum coal switching level is currently at 90.23/MWh, prices have downside potential before finding a fundamental support.

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