Mixed price evolution in Europe

European gas prices were mixed yesterday. The drop in Asia JKM prices (-8.04% on the spot, to €59.151/MWh; -2.64% for the March 2022 contract, to €61.923/MWh), the rebound in Norwegian supply (reaching 332 mm cm/day yesterday, compared to 321 mm cm/day on Wednesday) and the mild weather outlook continued to exert downward pressure on spot and 1^st nearby prices. By contrast, prices on the curve rebounded slightly as market participants do not forget that in a context of relatively weak stock levels (despite an improvement from end December) and ongoing weak Russian supply (stable at 184 mm cm/day on average yesterday), the European gas balance is not that comfortable.

At the close, NBP ICE February 2022 prices dropped by 1.600 p/th day-on-day (-0.89%), to 179.130 p/th. TTF ICE February 2022 prices were down by 40 euro cents (-0.53%), closing at €75.203/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices were up by 102 euro cents (+2.40%), closing at €43.554/MWh.

The 5-day Low continued to lend support to TTF ICE February 2022 prices yesterday, limiting the downward pressure. Prices are rebounding slightly this morning, but the rebound should be limited given the lower levels of Asia JKM prices, and the 5-day average around €76.50/MWh should set a resistance. As long as prices remain below this level today, the downtrend will be confirmed with likely additional price drops in the coming days.