Mixed price evolution

European gas prices were mixed on Friday. Spot prices were slightly up, supported by below-normal temperatures. By contrast, curve prices were slightly down as the additional drop in China coal prices continued to fuel hopes of an easing in global coal and gas markets. Asia JKM prices weakened on Friday: -2.23%, to €97.945/MWh, on the spot; -0.82%, to €97.425/MWh, for the December 2021 contract.

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows weakened slightly on Friday, to 255 mm cm/day on average, compared to 258 mm cm/day on Thursday. Norwegian supply was almost stable, averaging 341 mm cm/day, compared to 342 mm cm/day on Thursday.

At the close, NBP ICE November 2021 prices dropped by 2.180 p/th day-on-day (-0.98%), to 219.220 p/th. TTF ICE November 2021 prices were down by €1.13 (-1.27%) at the close, to €87.338/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by 23 euro cents (-0.42%), closing at €54.045/MWh, widening the spread against the coal parity price (€33.276/MWh, -1.17%).

On Friday, TTF ICE November 2021 prices found support around our €87.68/MWh intermediate level. They are rebounding this morning. But, with China coal prices still down today, the upside potential could be limited. The 20-day average could set a strong resistance, although a rise towards the 5-day High cannot be totally excluded.