European prices rose to record levels. Irrational?

European gas prices increased strongly yesterday, supported by the additional drop in Russian flows, down to 252 mm cm/day on average, compared to 258 mm cm/day on Monday, as Mallnow flows fell to 0 before switching to reverse mode. Norwegian flows were up, averaging 350 mm cm/day, compared to 342 mm cm/day on Monday. Note that Asia JKM prices were moderately up (+6.26% on the spot, to €135.714/MWh, +9.52% for the February 2022 contract, to €149.227/MWh), remaining well below European prices.

At the close, NBP ICE January 2022 prices increased by 79.890 p/th day-on-day (+21.49%), to 451.720 p/th. TTF ICE January 2022 prices were up by €33.34 (+22.69%) at the close, to €180.267/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by €33.69 (+32.40%), closing at €137.675/MWh.

Energyscan gas news

The lower liquidity amplified the movements in TTF ICE January 2022 prices yesterday. But if the magnitude of the increase may seem irrational, the €180.267/MWh Close level and even more the €187.785/MWh High level are the max levels that could be achieved without the market reaching our ultimate indicator of technical overbuying (ie the 5-day average above the 5-day High). With now almost all the financial participants bears pushed to stop loss and the bulls taking their profits, prices are correcting downward this morning. However, last minute buying by physical participants ahead of the contract expiry on 30 December can still lend support. Fundamentally, there is now evidence of LNG ships destined for Asia changing tack mid-voyage to supply Europe. For once, it would be irrational if this does not (finally) produce effects.

Share this news :
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email

You might also read :

May 24, 2021

Prices up on the spot, down on the far curve

European spot gas prices rebounded on Friday, supported by higher residential demand and weak pipeline supply. Indeed, Norwegian flows weakened again, averaging 263 mm cm/day,…
February 3, 2022

New all-time highs for EUA prices

EUA prices hit a new record high on Wednesday at €94.63/ton intraday for the Dec-22 contract with no fundamental driver at first glance. It should…
November 17, 2021

Stocks dynamics remains mysterious

Global crude stocks are the subject of interest for many market participants lately. Sattelite imagery providers are reporting steep draws since November, especially Kayrros. On the other…
Join EnergyScan

Get more analysis and data with our Premium subscription

Ask for a free trial here

Don’t have an account yet?  Sign up here!