European gas prices hit new record highs

The bullish trend in European gas prices showed no sign of abating yesterday with all contracts posting strong gains ahead of a tight supply period with planned outages affecting Russian gas pipelines, no upside expected in Ukrainian transit and record low stock levels. NBP ICE month-ahead prices hit their highest level since January 2006 at the close, while TTF front-month prices approached the €35/MWh mark for the first time since their historical peak of October 2008. TTF front-month prices traded slightly above our estimate of the average coal-to-gas switching level, which may lead to some demand destruction in the coming weeks if the movement continues. In Asia, JKM prices are trading slightly above Brent parity which remained a key fundamental resistance before the historical peak of January 2021.

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