European gas prices continued to strengthen on Wednesday, supported by cold, dry and not really windy weather forecasts for next week. Dwindling gas stocks and limited pipeline gas flows from Russia remain the main sources of concerns. Next monthly transport capacity auction planned for Monday will be the next key driver ahead of the end of the year. Gazprom notably reported yesterday that it has already fulfilled its 40 Bcm yearly transit contract with Ukraine for 2021. In other news, the European Commission released its widely awaited gas market reform legislative package with notably a proposal for voluntary joint gas purchase between member states to ensure more comfortable stock levels in the future. Talking about the ongoing tightness in European gas supply, The EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson said the EC “does not see an immediate risk of a supply crisis” but warned that “There is a big variable — the weather and what the winter will look like”.
TTF front-month prices opened higher again this morning (up to €135/MWh), mostly due to news on new French nuclear outages which could lead to a higher call on gas and coal power generation in the coming weeks (see Power section for more details). Nevertheless, the upside potential looks limited at current levels as most contracts remain in overbought territory and latest temperature forecasts show a risk of warming after the middle of next week.
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