Back to reality

The decline in long term bond yields was accentuated yesterday, pulling the US 10 year down to 1.43%, mainly on the idea that Joe Biden might decide to replace Jerome Powell with Lael Brainard, the advocate of “infinite QE”. In reality, both have always voted exactly the same way at Fed meetings and a change in the head…

Prices dropped as Russia Yamal flows resumed

Prices dropped yesterday in most European gas markets, pressured by the additional increase in pipeline supply. Indeed, Russian supply increased again yesterday, to 250 mm cm/day on average, compared to 235 mm cm/day on Wednesday, thanks to the additional rise in flows through Ukraine and the restart of Yamal flows through Poland. Norwegian flows weakened…

OPEC+ maintains its output policy

Without material surprises, OPEC+ countries maintained their production policy unchanged yesterday, with 0.4 mb/d monthly production increases considered to be sufficient to respond to a market that will soon be oversupplied in Q1, according to demand estimates and seasonality. Furthermore, OPEC+ members insisted that their decisions could not be challenged by other nations outside OPEC,…

EUAs failed again to close above 60€/t

The European power spot prices were mixed for today, down in Germany and the Netherlands amid forecasts of stronger wind and solar generation, but up in France and Belgium with support from expectations of lower nuclear availability and higher power demand. The  day-ahead prices averaged 177.18€/MWh in the four countries, +1.53€/MWh day-on-day. Failing another attempt…

Bond markets in disarray

While the Fed had done everything to limit the reaction of the interest rate markets to its decision to reduce its asset purchases, the Bank of England took them by surprise by leaving its key rate unchanged, even though it had largely contributed to fueling expectations of an increase. A tightening still appears possible in December, but…

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