The Fed meeting today is clouding all other market events, as inflation pressures have now been acknowledged by Powell and most US central bankers. Indeed, as US CPI and PPI continued to soar, the market anticipates a rise in target rate by May/June according to Fed rate futures. The most likely path in our view…
Front-month time spreads flipped in shallow contango for the first time since Q4 2020, a worrying sign that conflicts with the fundamental data we are collecting, whether it is in inventories or demand data. Indeed, satellite data shows a continued decline in onshore inventories (-10 mb for the first 15 days of December according to Kayyros),…
Profit taking after an historical rally dragged overbought EUA prices sharply down on Thursday with a record daily loss of €8.68/ton for the benchmark Dec-21 contract which briefly traded below the €80/ton mark. The correction filtered through power curve prices on the back of reports that the French government is considering an increase of the ARENH…
ICE Brent futures remained supported, above 74 $/b at the prompt, but could experience high volatility today during US market hours, as the BLS releases US inflation data for November. Survey expectations are above 6% y/y for the CPI index, which would maintain the US economy in a highly inflationary environment. Refined products inventories in the ARA built…
European gas prices weakened yesterday, pressured by the rebound in Norwegian flows, which were back to normal, reaching 351 mm cm/day on average, compared to 293 mm cm/day on Wednesday. Russian supply was almost stable, at 279 mm cm/day on average, compared to 280 mm cm/day on average on Wednesday. However, the stabilization in Asia…
