European gas prices maintained their strong uptrend yesterday, still supported by tight domestic fundamentals, while competition with Asia for LNG supply does not show yet strong and decisive signs of weakening. Indeed, Asia JKM prices were up by 1.15% on the spot, to €118.372/MWh, and by 6.33% for the February 2022 contract, to €127.566/MWh. On the…
The Fed meeting today is clouding all other market events, as inflation pressures have now been acknowledged by Powell and most US central bankers. Indeed, as US CPI and PPI continued to soar, the market anticipates a rise in target rate by May/June according to Fed rate futures. The most likely path in our view…
Front-month time spreads flipped in shallow contango for the first time since Q4 2020, a worrying sign that conflicts with the fundamental data we are collecting, whether it is in inventories or demand data. Indeed, satellite data shows a continued decline in onshore inventories (-10 mb for the first 15 days of December according to Kayyros),…
Profit taking after an historical rally dragged overbought EUA prices sharply down on Thursday with a record daily loss of €8.68/ton for the benchmark Dec-21 contract which briefly traded below the €80/ton mark. The correction filtered through power curve prices on the back of reports that the French government is considering an increase of the ARENH…
ICE Brent futures remained supported, above 74 $/b at the prompt, but could experience high volatility today during US market hours, as the BLS releases US inflation data for November. Survey expectations are above 6% y/y for the CPI index, which would maintain the US economy in a highly inflationary environment. Refined products inventories in the ARA built…
