A gloomy end of the year

The extremely rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led the Dutch government to declare a return to lockdown. The British authorities are also openly raising this possibility, especially since the Astrazeneca vaccine has been shown to be significantly less effective than messenger RNA vaccines against this variant according to several studies.  In the United States, Democratic…

US runs on the rise

Crude oil prices remained range-bound yesterday, despite time spreads continuing to correct. Feb/March ICE Brent time spreads are now at only a 13 cents backwardation. In Texas, Motiva’s refinery is restarting its crude unit (200 kb/d out of 600 kb/d) after a power outage last week that limited the throughput of the largest refinery in the…

EUAs retreated after a bullish opening

The European power spot prices climbed towards (and for some above) 300€/MWh yesterday, buoyed by soaring gas prices and forecasts of colder temperatures and weaker wind output. The day-ahead prices averaged 302.31€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +34.16€/MWh day-on-day and +85.72€/MWh from last week. After a bullish opening driven by the surging gas…

Competition between Europe and Asia continued to drive prices up

European gas prices increased again strongly yesterday, still supported by concerns on low Russian supply and weak stock levels. On the spot pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows came back to normal yesterday, averaging 349 mm cm/day, compared to 343 mm cm/day on Friday. Russian supply was almost stable, at 281 mm cm/day on average, compared…

Waiting for the Fed now

The equity markets have gone back down, bond yields have eased a bit and the dollar has strengthened a bit. This is the result of a mixture of concern about the Omicron variant and, above all, of caution before the central bank meetings, the Fed’s in particular. Regarding Omicron, the British authorities are making catastrophic forecasts…

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