Christmas outages

ICE Brent crude prices rebounded, with ICE Brent February contract touching 75 $/b while time spreads were back in backwardation. Indeed, outages in OPEC countries continue to stack, with Libyan production likely to be down by 0.8 mb/d due to political tensions between the NOC and the oil ministry. Yesterday, we also learned that Shell had…

EUAs retreated as a consequence of surging power and gas margin calls

The European power spot prices dropped yesterday amid expectations of weaker demand and surging wind output. The day-ahead prices averaged 357.14€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -58.65€/MWh from the previous day. Despite a mid-day (short-lived) recovery, the EUAs eroded 5% on Wednesday in a retreat mostly attributed to traders offloading allowances to raise…

Europe Q1 2022 prices dropped to more “rational” levels

European gas spot and Q1 2022 prices dropped yesterday, pressured by profit taking and the drop in Asia JKM prices (-4.30% on the spot, to €129.878/MWh, -7.09% for the February 2022 contract, to €138.653/MWh). By contrast, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2022 prices were up, reducing the spread against Q1 2022 prices as ongoing weak stock…

Omicron less scary

The week started badly, but optimism seems to be prevailing again. The Omicron variant is still spreading at an extremely high rate (over 100k per day in the UK for example) but new studies confirm what the data showed from the beginning in South Africa: this variant is much less aggressive than the Delta variants. According to…

EU refiners maintain operations despite natural gas prices

Crude prices rallied above 73.5 $/b at the prompt as European diesel cracks rallied in the wake of TTF prices reaching 180 EUR/MWh, which means refiners are now supporting both record CO2 and natural gas costs to maintain the diesel production. Still, November EU-16 runs were surprisingly holding, with an expansion of 4%, to 9.4 mb/d,…

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