Confusion and volatility

The markets are very volatile after Jerome Powell’s statements. They are now expecting almost five 25bp hikes in the fed funds rate by the end of the year (for seven meetings). Should we be worried about the risk of inflation or should we be happy that the Fed is finally taking the problem head on? Will…

The market remains bullish despite headwinds

The price of Brent 1st-nearby rose above $90/b yesterday even as US crude oil inventories rose for the second week in a row: +2.4mb. But it is true that the figures were mixed, with the increase concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico region while stocks at Cushing reached a very low level. The increase in gasoline…

Mixed price evolution amid bearish spot fundamentals and concerns ahead

European gas prices were mixed yesterday. They dropped on the spot and the two front months, pressured by moderate demand, ongoing strong LNG sendouts and profit taking. By contrast, they increased on the rest of the curve, supported by concerns on Russia-Ukraine tensions and the shape of the Asia JKM price curve: to +2.39% on…

EUAs climbed to new 2022 high on bullish equities

The surging wind production continued to pressure the European power spot prices yesterday, with the German price presenting the largest losses by falling by 114.27€/MWh from the previous day. The day-ahead prices averaged 195.80€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, -44.01€/MWh day-on-day. The EUAs jumped by more than 2€/t in the first hours of…

Jerome Powell changed everything

The Fed statement confirmed market expectations of a very likely rate hike in March and a process of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to follow. Until then, rates were rising without excess and the equity market was holding its gains. It was when Jerome Powell started his press conference that everything went wrong:…

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