Without conviction

US equity markets fell back yesterday as interest rates rose to above 3.2% for the US 10 year. Market participants appear unconvinced as we approach the end of the month, with recession fears pitted against inflation fears to determine what central bank policy will be. US durable goods orders rose again in May (+0.7% mom) as…

Prices took a breather, but the trend remains bullish

European gas prices took a breather after their strong rise of the previous session. The drop in coal prices (-3.34% for API2 1st nearby prices, -3.95% for Cal 2023 prices) also exerted downward pressure. For the moment, this decline in coal prices is essentially technical. But a more significant decline is possible if the global…

EU curve power prices retrace recent gains but tight fundamentals remain supportive

Warmer and calmer weather expectations for the week ahead pushed spot power prices sharply up on Friday amid strong coal and gas prices. Day-ahead prices hence averaged 316.02€/MWh in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, +27€/MWh day-on-day. On the curve, most contracts retraced some of the strong gains recorded earlier in the week. Prospects of…

G7 leaders talk about Russian Oil

On Friday oil benchmarks moved up. ICE Brent gained 2.8% to settle at $113.12/b, while NYMEX WTI front month went 3.2% higher and closed at $107.62/b. This move can be seen as a rebound, after the recent decline of oil prices due to the macroeconomic outlook. Indeed, the market is tight with a growing demand and a…

Downward revisions in expectations of monetary tightening

The rebound in risky assets that began on Thursday after the publication of sharply lower PMIs was amplified on Friday after the revised figures from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey showed a drop in inflation expectations. The S&P 500 was up 3.1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 2.8%. The EUR/USD exchange rate is up, above 1.0570. It…

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