Curve prices up after a volatile session

NWE spot baseload power prices were up yesterday, to €118.879/MWh on average for today delivery (compared to €112.274/MW for Wednesday), supported by forecasts of lower wind generation (3208 MW for today in Germany, compared to 4911 MW yesterday). EUA Dec’21 prices jumped to a new all-time high of €61.90/t yesterday, before falling gradually to close…

Prices weakened after an initial rally

European gas prices weakened overall yesterday at the close. They increased during most of the session, supported by new worries on Russian supply, before falling at the end, probably because of profit taking.  On the pipeline supply side, Russian supply dropped yesterday, averaging 288 mm cm/day (compared to 313 mm cm/day on Tuesday), as both…

OPEC+ does not deviate from its path

Yesterday’s OPEC meeting was uneventful, as the group briefly met, to extend the current production policy of a 400 kb/d group-wide production increase in October. The impact of Ida, combined with lost Mexican production, removed a substantial volume of sour crudes, especially needed for US refineries. With the Biden administration’s latest comments on OPEC policy, the…

Market anticipates ECB monetary tightening

Over the last two days, the German 10 year bond yield has increased by 7bp while the US 10 year is only up 3bp and turned down yesterday. This is the main reason why the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen from 1.18 to 1.1850. ECB hawks have been calling for an immediate reduction in ECB asset purchases, especially…

US production could be limited for weeks

November ICE Brent futures became the front-month contract, with prices back above 72 $/b on early Wednesday. The API survey, released yesterday, reports a 4 mb draw in crude oil inventories, while gasoline inventories grew by 2.7 mb. The EIA data release, expected today, will have little impact on the market, as volatility in US fundamentals is expected…

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