Roller coaster in Turkey

The Turkish currency has rebounded strongly against the USD since the beginning of the week (+40% from Monday’s low) thanks to a disguised rate increase. The government has undertaken to compensate savers for any loss on their Turkish lira assets that exceeds the gain in interest if they give up exchanging them for foreign currency. The operation has been successful for the time being, but potentially the scheme could prove much more costly than a simple rate hike by the Central Bank.

Otherwise, markets seem to be returning to a more neutral stance after yesterday’s rally in risky assets. Uncertainty about the economic impact of the Omicron variant and a possible reversal of the Biden plan by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin still prevails. The economic calendar features revised Q3 GDP growth figures for the UK (+1.1% instead of +1.3%) and the US as well as the Conference Board’s US Consumer Survey. The EUR/USD exchange rate is stable at below 1.13.