European prices weakened on lower Asian prices

European gas prices weakened last Friday. Amid unchanged domestic fundamentals, the moderation in Asia JKM prices (-0.64%, to €108.740/MWh, on the spot; -8.16%, to €103.547/MWh, for the January 2022 contract) exerted downward pressure. On the spot pipeline supply side, Norwegian flows were stable on Friday, at 344 mm cm/day on average. Russian supply was almost stable, averaging 289 mm cm/day, compared to 288 mm cm/day on Thursday. 

At the close, NBP ICE December 2021 prices dropped by 20.290 p/th day-on-day (-8.46%), to 219.510 p/th. TTF ICE December 2021 prices were down by €8.04  (-8.45%) at the close, to €87.125/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were down by €3.30 (-5.89%), closing at €52.657/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€36.121/MWh, +0.68%) narrowing.

The moderation in Asia JKM prices seems to have prompted some bulls to be more careful, causing TTF ICE December 2021 prices to continue to drop inside their “normal” trading range. Prices are down again this morning, but the 5-day Low is lending them support. This support should hold, although a temporary drop towards the 20-day average cannot be excluded (by contrast, a drop to the 20-day Low seems difficult to achieve for the time being given the levels of Asia JKM prices).