Moderate price increase overall

European gas prices were mixed yesterday: lower in the UK, higher overall on the continent as concerns on Russian supply continued to lend support. Russian flows remained stable yesterday at their weak 104 mm cm/day level. Norwegian flows were slightly lower, averaging 306 mm cm/day, compared to 308 mm cm/day on Tuesday.

As evidence that the market now expects lasting tension, the price rise has been stronger on the far curve and the backwardation has reduced.

At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices dropped by 22.240 p/th (-10.80%), to 183.620 p/th, equivalent to €72.727/MWh. TTF ICE July 2022 prices were up by €1.611 (+1.28%), closing at €127.171/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €3.284 (+3.56%), closing at €95.472/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 1.45%, to €117.063/MWh; August 2022 prices dropped by 0.58%, to €119.853/MWh.

During  a session characterized once again by low volatility, TTF 1st nearby prices continued their “normalization” process yesterday, closing in the lower part of the range set by the 20-day High and the 5-day High. In the absence of a decisive fundamental element, this could still be the case today.