US inflation rate expected to rise above 7

There is decidedly little happening in the markets this week apart from a fairly sharp rebound in equities, buoyed by strong corporate results, but that could change today. Bond yields have stabilised and are even falling in Europe this morning as we await US inflation figures for January (2.30pm CET). A further increase above 7% is expected, while core inflation could rise to around 6%. This report could be decisive for the Fed’s first rate hike in March: +25bp or +50bp?

We will also be watching weekly jobless claims in the US: their decline should be confirmed, in line with the ebbing of the Omicron wave. The EUR/USD exchange rate is stable at around 1.142-1.143.